Soaring Forecast Ceipek Score

How to use: Before your flight, analyze the forecast using Skysight or similar tools. Rate each criterion from 1-5 based on conditions. A total score of 35+ indicates excellent potential for fast, long-distance flights. Save your assessment to track conditions over time.

Soaring Window Duration

How many usable soaring hours are forecast? Look at when thermals initiate and decay. Longer windows allow bigger tasks.

1 <5 hours
Very short

2 5-6 hours
Limited

3 6-7 hours
Adequate

4 7-8 hours
Good

5 8+ hours
Excellent

Thermal Heights

What are the forecast thermal tops / convective boundary layer heights? Higher thermals mean faster glides and better terrain clearance.

1 <10,000 ft AGL
Very low

2 10-12,000 ft
Below average

3 12-15,000 ft
Average

4 15-18,000 ft
Good

5 18,000+ ft
Exceptional

Thermal Strength

What climb rates are forecast? Stronger thermals allow faster average speeds and more aggressive MacCready settings.

1 <3 kts
Weak

2 3-4 kts
Light

3 4-6 kts
Moderate

4 6-8 kts
Strong

5 8+ kts
Very strong

Cumulus Development

Are cumulus clouds forecast to mark thermals? Cu makes finding lift much easier and allows faster cruise between thermals.

1 Blue day
No markers

2 Scattered wisps
Unreliable

3 Partial Cu
Some areas

4 Good Cu
Most areas

5 Well-defined Cu
Task-wide

Overdevelopment Risk

What is the risk of spreadout, overdevelopment, or thunderstorms? OD shuts down thermals and creates hazards.

1 Widespread OD
High storm risk

2 Likely OD
Over task area

3 Possible OD
Scattered areas

4 Low risk
Isolated only

5 No OD risk
Clean sky

Wind Conditions

Are winds favorable for your planned task? Consider headwind/tailwind legs and potential for convergence or wave.

1 Strong headwind
Task-killer

2 Unfavorable
Significant penalty

3 Neutral
Light/variable

4 Favorable
Helps task

5 Optimal
Convergence/wave

Convergence Zones

Are there forecast convergence lines or energy lines that can be used for fast cruising? These are task accelerators.

1 None
Random thermals

2 Weak/uncertain
May not form

3 Possible
Short segments

4 Good lines
On course

5 Strong lines
Task-aligned

Spatial Consistency

How consistent are conditions across your planned task area? Look for weak spots, blue holes, or areas of concern.

1 Very patchy
Many weak zones

2 Inconsistent
Problem areas

3 Mixed
Workable gaps

4 Mostly uniform
Minor variations

5 Very consistent
Task-wide lift

Potential Flight Distance

What does Skysight's Potential Flight Distance forecast show for your area? This integrates multiple factors into achievable distance.

1 <300 km
Local only

2 300-500 km
Short XC

3 500-700 km
Decent day

4 700-1000 km
Strong day

5 1000+ km
Epic day

Forecast Confidence

How confident are you in the forecast? Check model agreement, forecast age, and synoptic situation stability.

1 Very uncertain
Models disagree

2 Low confidence
Changing fast

3 Moderate
Some questions

4 High confidence
Stable forecast

5 Very high
Classic setup

Ceipek Score

out of 50

Select all criteria to see rating

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